…
Ah! May no one give me pious intentions,
Nobody ask me definitions!
Nobody tells me: “Come this way”!
My life is a whirlwind that broke free,
A wave that has risen,
An extra atom that has come to life…
I don’t know through where I’ll go,
I don’t know where I’ll go,
— I know I won’t go through there
Translation into English of an excerpt from Cântico Negro by José Régio.
Decision-making is, by nature, an act that implies movement: going, doing. However, this movement is rarely accompanied by absolute certainty. On the contrary, the action verbs like “go” or “do” are often paired with the existential doubt of “I do not know.”; “I do not know where I am going.”; “I do not know what to do”. What may seem like a simple daily choice is, in fact, a reflection of our deep uncertainties, our constant search for meaning in a world full of doubt. These seemingly trivial questions resonate as part of a philosophical quest for answers that remain stubbornly elusive.
In philosophy, doubt is not merely an obstacle but a starting point for reflection and understanding. Socrates, for example, believed that the key to knowledge lay in asking questions. Thus, not knowing becomes a driving force for action, pushing us to seek, explore, and act. But how can we move forward when the path ahead remains uncertain? Every day, we make decisions. Some are so minor that we hardly think about them, like what to have for breakfast. Others feel life-defining, such as selecting a college major, accepting a job offer, or deciding how to manage our finances. And some decisions can carry life-or-death consequences — like whether to get vaccinated or evacuate an area threatened by seismic activity.
For decades, literature, cinema, poetry, and disciplines like philosophy, economics, and psychology have explored the impact of decisions on our lives. Each form of art offers a unique perspective on the act of deciding. In particular, psychology and behavioral economics have sought to understand how we make decisions, why we so often make mistakes, and how small changes in the way choices are presented can profoundly influence people’s decisions. Some research in this field has been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, such as the groundbreaking work of Kahneman and Tversky (Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2011) and Thaler (Nudge, 2018).
So, what have researchers discovered about decision-making? Why do we make poor decisions? Is this due to a lack of information, or, on the contrary, to being overwhelmed by an excess of data? And, more importantly, how can the results of these studies be effectively applied in the real world to improve people’s lives? By now, you may be reading this text in search of a quick solution, a sort of “magic formula” that will allow you to make better decisions based on behavioral science. However, the concept of what is “better” can be subjective. After all, what distinguishes a bad decision from a good one? How can we establish criteria to evaluate the quality of our choices?
The psychological impact of decision-making
Different groups of people and researchers define good and bad decisions in different ways. For some, a good decision is simply one that, given all available information, results in the most computationally optimized choice. If we were machines, that reasoning would be enough, but humans don’t operate like computers. Often, we make decisions that, from a purely rational point of view, may seem suboptimal but make sense within our emotional and social context.
A good decision, then, is not necessarily the one that leads to the best absolute result, but rather the one made based on the best possible interpretation of the available information at the time. In contrast, a bad decision tends to be easier to identify: it occurs when there is a clear error in interpreting or processing the information, leading to a failure in reasoning. However, there is a third type of decision — and perhaps the most common — for which there is simply no right or wrong answer. These are the choices where the factors involved prevent an objective calculation. In such situations, we get stuck and paralyzed. When multiple possible paths exist, our minds become overwhelmed, and instead of moving forward, we freeze. The anxiety caused by uncertainty can be suffocating. We get trapped in a cycle of doubt, as if we are waiting for a certainty that never comes. In these cases, the key may not be to eliminate uncertainty but to learn to accept it. Instead of trying to avoid the fear of failure, we should recognize it and move forward despite it. Accepting our vulnerability does not make us weak — on the contrary, it gives us the freedom to act without needing the guarantee of a perfect outcome. The mistake, then, is not in the decision itself but in the refusal to decide. By trying to avoid vulnerability, we create paralysis. The solution may be simpler than it seems: stop seeking guarantees and instead tell ourselves that we will do our best. Because in the end, it is not about finding the perfect choice. It is about having the courage to choose.
Free will is, for many, the essence of the human experience — we believe that we choose freely, that each decision reflects our autonomy and individuality. However, behavioral psychology suggests a different perspective: our choices are not as free as they seem. They are shaped by our environment, past experiences, and the stimuli we encounter throughout life. Every decision we make carries a trail of conditioning, influenced by positive and negative reinforcements that, without our awareness, both guide and constrain our options. Ultimately, we choose within the boundaries of what we have learned to consider possible.
For example, in the book Poor Economics, Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo show how the social environment can restrict choices from the outset. For those with limited resources, long-term planning is not always a realistic consideration — immediate survival dictates their options. What seems like an obvious decision to some may never even appear as a viable possibility to others.
But what truly determines whether a decision is good or bad? What variables shape this process? Research on decision-making encompasses multiple approaches, but certain factors are particularly relevant. The way information is presented, the role of emotions, the perception of time, and the level of confidence in the data all play a direct role influencing our choices.
The Impact of Emotions on Decision-Making
Emotions play a crucial role in decision-making, often taking precedence over logic. Several authors suggest that fear and anxiety can lead us to avoid decisions that would be beneficial from a rational standpoint. One of the most studied biases is loss aversion: people experience the impact of losing something more intensely than the pleasure of gaining something of equivalent value. This explains, for instance, why changing jobs or pursuing a new career can be so difficult. The more secure one’s current position is, the higher the salary or perceived benefit must be to justify the risk of change. In situations of uncertainty, emotional weight often outweighs the mathematical logic of a decision.
Another emotional factor that distorts rational thinking is hyperbolic discounting. We tend to overvalue immediate rewards and undervalue future gains, which explains why we might prefer a small salary increase now over investing in a long-term project that could yield much greater returns. According to António Damásio’s research (see Descartes’ Error), emotional responses help assess risks and anticipate consequences, playing a fundamental role in adaptive choices. Emotions not only influence our judgment but can, at times, be more effective than logic in managing uncertainty and risk.
Temporal Perception and Decision-Making
The difficulty of making decisions about events that are distant in time is a well-known issue in psychology. Distant future events seem more abstract than those occurring in the near term, making it hard to take immediate action on long-term problems — such as climate change or planning for retirement after finishing university. One strategy to reduce this abstraction is to personalize information. Some researchers have conducted experiments where participants were shown digitally aged images of themselves to help them better envision their future. This simple exercise increased their willingness to save for retirement (see Hal Hershfield’s work). Similarly, other researchers argue that concrete visual representations of the future — such as flood projections in specific neighborhoods — can help people accept preventive measures, like purchasing flood insurance. By making the future feel more tangible, these strategies help bridge the gap between present decisions and long-term consequences.
The Effect of Time Pressure on the Decision-Making Process
Time pressure profoundly shapes our ability to make decisions. When time is scarce, we rely on intuition, trusting System 1, which some researchers describe as fast and automatic. In familiar situations, this approach can be effective, but in complex contexts, it can lead to predictable errors. System 2, which is more deliberate and analytical, requires cognitive effort and time to assess options and reduce cognitive biases. However, the way we perceive the urgency of a situation can directly influence how quickly we decide. People do not always realize how much this pressure can drive them to act impulsively, without considering alternatives. Even a brief pause — just 10 or 30 seconds — can be enough to prevent a mistake.
Heuristics are cognitive mechanisms that allow us to make quick decisions without considering all available information. While useful in many daily situations, they can also lead to systematic biases and judgment errors. The availability heuristic, for instance, leads us to overestimate information that comes to mind easily, such as recent events or striking personal experiences. For example, after seeing multiple news reports about plane crashes, we may overestimate the risk of flying, despite statistics showing it is one of the safest means of transportation. Meanwhile, the representativeness heuristic makes us categorize events based on familiar patterns, disregarding actual probabilities. A common example is assuming that someone who eats organic food must necessarily have a healthy lifestyle, without considering other habits that may influence their health. Throughout human evolution, we developed the ability to make quick decisions, which, overall, have been beneficial to us. However, we now live in a much more complex world, where we face challenges we did not naturally evolve to handle, such as making complex decisions. As a result, our intuition does not always lead us to the best choices.
In the book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell explores how intuitive decisions can be advantageous for experts with years of experience. He also illustrates the power of the unconscious mind and its ability to make quick, accurate judgments. However, he warns about the potential dangers of rapid judgments and how they can lead to biases and mistakes. The work of Kahneman and Tversky has shown that, in contexts of uncertainty, intuition can lead us to overestimate risks. These authors describe how our decisions do not always follow logic. One example of this is loss aversion, mentioned at the beginning of this article. Their research also demonstrated that we tend to overestimate the probability of rare events, such as natural disasters or winning the lottery, while underestimating high probabilities, such as the effectiveness of a vaccine. As a result, we play the lottery convinced that we might win, yet hesitate to take a vaccine due to the small possibility of failure.
The way a situation is framed — whether positively or negatively — significantly influences our choices. Presenting a medical treatment as “saving 90% of patients” seems more effective than saying it “has a 10% mortality rate,” even though they convey the same information. This reflects not only a difficulty in interpreting statistics but also a basic human instinct to avoid perceived risks. Misinterpreted statistical data can lead to poor choices, as most people struggle to understand probabilities and risks objectively. In today’s fast-paced world, where speed is prioritized and information is not always clear or accessible, recognizing the limits of intuition and understanding the cognitive biases that influence decisions can be essential to avoiding mistakes and improving the quality of our choices. Given the potential consequences of these misinterpretations, it is crucial that data visualizations are tested and validated before being widely adopted, especially in critical scenarios.
The Paradox of Choice and Information Overload
The internet and the development of the digital age have brought immediate access to an enormous amount of information, but this doesn’t always simplify decision-making. Schwartz (2004), in The Paradox of Choice, argues that an excess of options can lead to cognitive overload, resulting in dissatisfaction with the final choice. Moreover, the search for information often reinforces cognitive biases, as we tend to seek data that confirms our pre-existing beliefs (confirmation bias), making it difficult to distinguish between reliable information and misinformation. We live in a world where the abundance of choices and information is expected to make our lives easier, but it often has the opposite effect. In the supermarket, choosing a simple yogurt can be a challenge with dozens of options. At work, the excess of tools, strategies, and priorities can lead to decision paralysis and a constant sense of overload. The solution is not to drastically reduce options but to organize them more effectively. For example, organized dashboards help prioritize tasks at work without information overload, while apps like Netflix suggest content based on previous preferences.
It is important to highlight that trust in information sources has become a new challenge. Often, people trust information that aligns with their beliefs, even when it is not the most accurate. Therefore, we must increasingly educate ourselves and those around us to evaluate the reliability of sources. After all, more information and more options are only useful when we know how to manage them effectively.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Decision-Making
It is almost impossible to discuss the development of the digital age without addressing about the role of AI in decision-making. However, there is widespread skepticism about delegating important decisions to algorithms, especially because AI systems can replicate human biases if they are trained with biased data. O’Neil (2016), in Weapons of Math Destruction, warns that algorithms can perpetuate inequalities if used without transparency and critical oversight. We must also acknowledge the positive aspects of AI and how its use can be a powerful tool for filtering information and structuring decisions, as long as it is developed with diverse perspectives and ethical rigor. In the near future, many decisions may be facilitated by AI, reducing information overload and helping to select more rational options.
Strategies to Assist Decision-Making
- Take intentional pauses — Pausing before making a decision helps prevent impulsive actions and allows for the consideration of more variables. Intuition and reasoning are not opposites; the key is to balance both.
- Adapt the depth of analysis to the decision’s complexity — Simple decisions do not require the same effort as more complex ones.
- Practice emotional self-reflection — Recognizing the influence of emotions on judgment can lead to more balanced and informed decisions.
- Explore data interactively — Tools that allow scenario simulations can improve understanding of predictions and uncertainties.
- Acknowledge cognitive biases — Questioning personal beliefs helps prevent biased decisions.
- Stay updated on AI developments — Understanding the limitations of AI is essential for making informed decisions.
- Reframe information — Presenting statistics in an intuitive way makes interpretation easier. Increasing knowledge about probabilities and risks enhances decision-making.
- Peer review and simulations — In a corporate setting, involving colleagues and testing different scenarios can help reduce errors.
Conclusion
Decision-making is a complex process influenced by how information is presented, our emotions, the perception of time, and the volume of available data. Proper data visualization can reduce interpretation errors, while strategies to make the future feel more concrete can assist in making long-term decisions. However, the digital age has introduced challenges such as information overload and misinformation, making it essential to develop critical evaluation skills. Artificial intelligence has the potential to facilitate this process, provided it is designed ethically and transparently.
On a personal note, I have always been fascinated by the complexity of decision-making. I used to admire those for whom it seemed so simple. But as a piece of advice now, a decision should not consume us. It should never take more from us than it is capable of giving in return. Above all, we must be kind to ourselves when making decisions, without tormenting ourselves in the process. We should analyze the data and consider our options, but we must also trust our intuition. Because while we may not always know exactly where we are going, we often know, without hesitation, where we do not want to go — and that, in itself, is already an excellent starting point.